Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
